NFL - Green Bay @ Denver (8:00 PM ET – ESPN)
This week’s Monday night contest is an intriguing inter-conference matchup between the Packers and Broncos from Denver
2007-10-29
This week’s Monday night contest is an intriguing inter-conference matchup between the Packers and Broncos from Denver. Green Bay, 5-1 SU & 4-1 ATS, has been one of the NFL’s biggest early surprises, while Denver, 3-3 SU 1-5 ATS has disappointed.
The hosts come off a big upset of Pittsburgh though and oddsmakers reacted quickly, installing them as 3-point favorites. The Pack has played its best football on the road under Mike McCarthy, going 7-3 SU & ATS, never once playing as the favorite. However, they are just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in their L9 games vs. the AFC. Mike Shanahan’s team is on a 5-5 SU but 1-9 ATS run as chalk and lost both home games outright in ’06 vs. the NFC. The home team is 4-0 SU & ATS in the L4 regular season meetings between these teams.
The Packers are starting to build HC Mike McCarthy’s reputation as one of the unsung leaders in the NFL. Their 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS shows this team is finding success built on a competitive balance of youth and veteran leadership. The defense may rank as their key to victory, but the long shadow cast by future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre isn’t easy to escape. He will be tested by the best CB duo in the league this week.
The failures of Denver thus far this season (2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS) are difficult to comprehend for a franchise long respected as a consistent force in the NFL. The offense has struggled under QB Jay Cutler as costly mistakes seem magnified due to defensive shortcomings, a squad surrendering a league-worst 188 rushing yards per game. The Green Bay offense is not set to seize those potential gifts, so the focus for Denver turns to offense.
Keys to the Game
Green Bay comes off a bye and might be the biggest mystery of any team with a winning record. The 5-1 record could be mirage with no running game and defense that gives up a concerning amount of yardage. In many ways Denver is the perfect opponent for the Packers since they can’t stop the run, gain tons of yards on offense and don’t score. Both coaches need to alter identity of their teams heading into the colder weather months.
Trends
- The Packers are 12-7-1 ATS away on Monday night.
- The Packers are 6-73 ATS when they lose outright.
- The Broncos are 8-2 ATS versus poor rushing teams averaging 3.5 or less rushing yards a carry.
- The Broncos are 1-9 ATS at home before two straight road games.
StatFox Pick – Packers plus points
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